Category Archives: Weekly Outlook
Credit Suisse Fallout Hits Major Banks
Written on March 20, 2023 at 5:17 am, by jonywang
The latest and largest fall in the recent banking turmoil is embattled Swiss lender Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse Group AG bondholders suffered a historic loss of about CHF 16bn ($17.3bn) worth of risky notes when a takeover by UBS Group AG triggered a “complete write-down” of the bank’s additional tier 1 (AT1) bonds in orderContinue Reading
Stubbornly Strong Jobs Data Supports Hawkish Fed Outlook
Written on March 9, 2023 at 6:52 am, by jonywang
In a continued chain of unrelentingly robust jobs data, the U.S. ADP Nonfarm printed a reading of 242,000 for February, higher than an estimated 205 000 and up from a revised 119,000 for January. The service sector had the largest contribution to job additions with 190,000, of which a majority came from the leisure andContinue Reading
Commodities Surge as China’s Economy Recovery Sprints Ahead
Written on March 2, 2023 at 5:36 am, by jonywang
On Wednesday, China released its Manufacturing PMI and Caixin Manufacturing PMI for February, beating economists’ expectations of 50.5 and 50.2 respectively. A reading above 50 indicates expansion from the previous month. This is the highest reading since April 2012, marking a faster-than-expected rebound for the world’s second-largest economy after covid-19 related shutdowns slowed growth toContinue Reading
FOMC Minutes Show Fight Against Inflation Will Continue, Soft Landing Possible
Written on February 23, 2023 at 3:29 am, by jonywang
An increasingly risk-off market has been proved right as the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has released the minutes of its 31 Jan – 1 Feb meeting, signalling the Fed’s resolve to continue the fight against inflation. This includes further hikes, although almost all members of the FOMC supported a slowing down in theContinue Reading
Cheap Consumer Loans Might Backfire in China
Written on February 20, 2023 at 5:50 am, by jonywang
President Xi Jinping’s effort to stimulate China’s economy through increased consumer spending is facing a new challenge as citizens misuse cheap consumer loans. Borrowers are using low-interest loans to prepay mortgages or invest in stocks, instead of buying goods as intended. This practice, which is prohibited by regulators, threatens to undermine Beijing’s plan to fosterContinue Reading
“Goldilocks” Markets Sees Diverging Signals After CPI Release
Written on February 16, 2023 at 4:44 am, by jonywang
On Tuesday, February 14, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures were released, showing an increase of 0.5% in January and the highest in three months but in-line with expectations. The year-on-year increase, meanwhile, is 6.4%, up slightly from market forecasts of 6.2%. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increasedContinue Reading
Investors Snap Up Adani Bonds
Written on February 13, 2023 at 4:42 am, by jonywang
Hedge funds and distressed debt specialists are buying bonds related to Gautam Adani’s business empire, a potential sign of encouragement after a recent short-seller report. Oaktree Capital Management and Davidson Kempner Capital Management are among the firms buying the debt, which suggests that a rout in Adani’s securities may be easing after some of itsContinue Reading
Crude Oil Prices Defy Inventory Build
Written on February 9, 2023 at 3:09 am, by jonywang
On Wednesday, the U.S Energy Information Administration reported an increase in crude inventories by 2.42 million barrels, close to the market expectations of 2.46 millions barrels. This is the third consecutive crude inventory build, coming after an outsized 4.14 million last week. This makes it a rough 4% above the 5-year average for this timeContinue Reading
Amazon Reports Growing Share of Tech Market
Written on February 6, 2023 at 6:55 am, by jonywang
Amazon’s advertising business continues to thrive, growing 19% YoY in Q4 2022 to $11.6 billion in sales, despite a slowdown in the digital advertising market that has affected other companies like Alphabet, Facebook, and Snap. While Amazon’s advertising unit is still a small portion of the company’s overall revenue, it is seen as a fast-growingContinue Reading
Ahead of NFP, Fed Implements Lowest Rate Hike in 10 Months
Written on February 2, 2023 at 6:13 am, by jonywang
On Wednesday, the U.S Federal Reserve released its monetary policy decision for February 2023, raising the benchmark interest rate by 25 points at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting, as widely expected by the markets. This brings the target range of 4.5% to 4.75%, making it the highest since October 2007. This also marks theContinue Reading